The rating agency S & P downgraded the Russian GDP by 1% (from 3.6% to 2.6%), and forecasts for 2016 were reduced from 1.9% to just 0.3%. According to experts of Standard & Poors, the cost of oil in the world market will continue to be low for a fairly long period.
In the fourth quarter of this year, Brent will cost about $ 50 per barrel (previously expected to be $ 55), and in 2016 the oil of this brand will rise in price only to $ 55, not $ 65, as predicted earlier.
S & P economists also suggest that the weakening of domestic demand in Russia will be more prolonged, including due to tightening of the monetary, fiscal and fiscal policies of the Central Bank in 2015-16. Previous forecasts spoke of a recovery in demand in the second half of 2016.
Investments in Russia in the next year will also be small, which will put pressure on economic growth. Thus, in the first 8 months of this year, the country’s GDP contracted by 3.8%, while the Ministry of Economic Development said that by the end of the year this figure will reach 3.9%, and next year it is expected to grow by 0.7%.
The world currency fund also worsened its forecasts regarding GDP: according to new data, the Russian economy will decrease by 3.8% (and not by 3.4%) in 2015, and by 0.6% in 2016 (previously the IMF believed that the Russian economy The economy will grow by 0.2%).
Nevertheless, Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that the peak of the crisis in the Russian economy has already been passed, and now the economy is beginning to adapt to new conditions, which will allow it to stabilize. He said this, speaking at the forum “Russia is calling!”.
The head of state noted that in the third quarter of this year there is an inflow of capital to Russia, and this shows that the domestic economy is adapting to the crisis conditions. The outflow of capital began in the second quarter of 2010, and now, five years later, an absolute inflow is already visible. At the same time, the president once again stressed that the state will not conduct bans or restrictions on the movement of capital.